Obama has operated cheap canada goose uk that way

Handicapping Hillary Clinton’s 2016 chances

Will Hillary Clinton be elected America’s next president?

The polls suggest she will. Recent polls compiled by Real Clear Politics show her winning 67 percent of the vote in Democratic primaries, with no other candidate above 11 percent. General election polling shows her with an average lead over various possible Republican nominees of canada goose factory sale 51 to 39 percent.

For one thing, no one is sure whether Clinton will actually run. She canada goose outlet toronto factory turns 69 in 2016 (the same age as Ronald Reagan when he was first elected in 1980) and she may consider uk canada goose that her achievements in eight years as first lady and US senator, and four years as secretary of state, are enough for one lifetime.

Her achievements in that last office may look less impressive than they did in the first Obama term when majorities expressed approval canada goose outlet nyc of the president’s foreign policy. Clinton’s proudly proclaimed “reset” with Russia suddenly canada goose store looks less like a triumph than a misfire.

She’s also had health scares: canada goose outlet canada a blood clot behind her right knee in 1998 and another in her skull in December 2012.

The 2016 election will be only the fourth in the last 40 years in which the incumbent president wasn’t running. In the previous three, the candidate of the president’s party ran roughly in line with the incumbent’s job approval. That produced a 53 percent to 46 percent victory for George H. W. Bush in 1988, a popular vote plurality for Al Gore in 2000 and a 53 46 defeat for John McCain in 2008.

The odd thing about 2016 polling is that Clinton https://www.rkliedtke.de runs far above President Obama’s job approval, while in the few polls pitting Vice President Joe Biden and others against Republicans, the Democrats run far behind.

That’s odd: We’re in a period of straight ticket voting, and in recent Senate and House elections, Democratic candidates have won percentages highly correlated with Obama’s job approval.

One reason Clinton may be running ahead of canada goose clearance sale the president’s approval is canada goose factory outlet the high retrospective approval of Bill Clinton’s presidency. The Canada Goose Jackets 1990s are remembered (largely but not entirely accurately) as a time of booming job growth, technological progress, peace and American primacy abroad.

And the last six years of Clinton’s presidency, when Republicans had majorities in both houses of Congress, are seen as times of bipartisan cooperation and reform.

Back in 2008, Obama said he wanted to be a transformative president like Reagan, rather than an accommodating president like Bill Clinton. Obama has operated cheap canada goose uk that way, declining Clinton style triangulating between his party’s liberals and the other canada goose black friday sale party’s conservatives.

Today’s low Obama approval rating and Clinton’s higher canada goose outlet in usa percentages suggest that many independent voters prefer the Clinton model.

But if Bill Clinton is a political asset for his wife’s candidacy, he could also prove to be a liability. He has continued to be canada goose outlet online more politically active though not taking a harsh partisan approach than just about any other former president except Andrew Jackson and Theodore Roosevelt.

Two other family members of presidents have been elected president while those former presidents were alive, but both forebears were politically inactive. George H. W. Bush withdrew from politics after he canada goose outlet sale lost in 1992, and John Adams was 89 when John Quincy Adams took the oath in 1825.

Many voters might be pleased to see an experienced, somewhat mellowed and undoubtedly brainy Bill Clinton as an adviser always on call to a second President Clinton. But personal feelings toward Bill Clinton were decidedly negative after the Monica Lewinsky scandal broke, and many voters might have little appetite for having such shenanigans touch the White canada goose House again.

President Clinton’s aides were always on guard against Canada Goose online “bimbo eruptions,” and his canada goose outlet parka possible “first gentleman” role seems to be triggering a revival of interest in his extracurricular cheap canada goose adventures.

In the last month alone, he posed (presumably inadvertently) with two Nevada prostitutes. More recently, the widely read Daily Mail ran a story on his travels a decade ago on the private plane of a man canada goose outlet reviews later convicted of having sex with a minor.

On balance, I suspect that Bill Clinton would be more of an asset than a liability to a Hillary Clinton candidacy. But I’m not sure whether voters have sorted out their conflicting feelings about the 42nd president.

And I’m not sure whether Hillary Clinton’s poll numbers represent anything more than a preference for a familiar canada goose outlet shop and widely respected figure over passels of little known Democrats canada goose outlet (and a much derided vice president) and Republicans. We’ll see if she runs.